Imagine a company of 5 people: the boss making 75 grand, 3 fulltime workers making 50K, and a part-time janitor making 10K. Only the boss has a degree. The Degree/Nondegree Earnings Ratio is 1.875.Now let’s say all three of our fulltime workers get degrees. Their boss is not impressed- in fact, he thinks this was such a stupid idea that he punishes them with a pay cut, so they’re only making 45K each now. The Degree/Nondegree Earnings Ratio has now gone UP to 5.25 even though the degrees did absolutely no good at all and in fact caused harm.Conclusion 1: the reported results could be caused entirely by the uninteresting statistical effects of more people getting degrees.Conclusion 2: statistics should be left to the professionals.

Imagine a company of 5 people: the boss making 75 grand, 3 fulltime workers making 50K, and a part-time janitor making 10K. Only the boss has a degree. The Degree/Nondegree Earnings Ratio is 1.875.Now let’s say all three of our fulltime workers get degrees. Their boss is not impressed- in fact, he thinks this was such a stupid idea that he punishes them with a pay cut, so they’re only making 45K each now. The Degree/Nondegree Earnings Ratio has now gone UP to 5.25 even though the degrees did absolutely no good at all and in fact caused harm.Conclusion 1: the reported results could be caused entirely by the uninteresting statistical effects of more people getting degrees.Conclusion 2: statistics should be left to the professionals.