Turn on the TV news, or look at a news website, and you’ll see charts, graphics, and dashboards that supposedly indicate the latest with COVID-19 – statistics revealing the number of tests, cases, hospitalizations and deaths, along with where they happened and whether they are rising or falling.

Different stories are told depending on the dashboard. But one thing is certain: These indicators lag behind the actions we take, or don’t take, on COVID-19. As researchers who focus on public health, we can tell you that a fully accurate, real-time snapshot of the progress of the virus isn’t possible.


Some don’t get tested

There are many reasons for this. Here’s one: diagnostic testing data are incomplete. Someone infected with COVID-19 must first come in contact with the virus either through the air or (less likely) environmental surfaces.

Symptoms show between two and 14 days later. But at least 40% of those infected will never manifest symptoms, or show such mild ones they don’t even suspect they have COVID-19. So they may never get tested, which means they won’t show up in the total number of tests, or the total number of cases.

Another example: because of the lack of testing availability – a widespread problem in the U.S. since the start of the pandemic – not everyone who should be tested gets a test.

And another: the tests themselves are not perfect. Up to one-third who get a negative result may actually be infected. This happens because they are tested before they have a viral load sufficient enough for detection. Or maybe the sampling is not adequate. Or perhaps the test itself simply failed.

Case numbers don’t tell the full story

This is why problems arise when we use case numbers to determine disease levels in a community. Case counts actually reflect what was happening in a community weeks earlier. Four weeks, for instance, could elapse between the time a person is exposed to the virus and when they are reported as a case.

Even the best testing results often take a week to report to public health authorities, and longer to appear on dashboards. Some testing results, seriously delayed, may take ten days or more.

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Other factors impact the metrics. Laboratory results, often released in batches, may introduce artificial variation in case numbers. Someone who tested two days ago, then got a result back immediately, might be added on the same day as someone who was sick two weeks ago, but whose test results were delayed.

To smooth out these variations, it helps to look at a rolling seven-day case average.

Hospitalization is a clearer metric for assessing the level of community disease. Those who are seriously ill, in most cases, will be hospitalized whether previously tested or not. Data suggests roughly one in five infected persons are hospitalized.

Individuals seem to do okay for the first week, with more life-threatening symptoms showing in the second. That means hospitalizations represent exposures that happened three or four weeks earlier.

Again, a seven-day rolling average evens out artificial variations. There is one caveat for this: Though hospitalization is a useful metric, only about 20% of infected people need it. That means hospitalization numbers alone underestimate the number of people infected and what age groups they represent.

States vary on cause of death

The death numbers are not a reliable indicator either. In some states, to count as a COVID-19 death, the deceased must have had a test reporting positive. In other states, probable cases are reported.

As clinicians learn how to better treat COVID-19, fatality rates are dropping. Deaths, the longest lagging indicator, reflect people who were infected six or eight weeks earlier. When comparing one region to another, deaths are best expressed as rates – a ratio of deaths to population.

Another issue: News reports do not always clearly distinguish between diagnostic testing, which shows if you currently have COVID-19, and antibody testing, which shows if you had it in the past, and now harbor antibodies that can fight it.

So far, however, antibody testing has not provided a useful picture of who has been infected and who has not. Once that happens, it could provide researchers and clinicians with some indicators on how widely the virus has spread.

Though the dashboards are ubiquitous on television, none of these frequently used indicators they feature is perfect. Still, taken together, they provide a reasonable approximation of COVID-19 transmission in communities. But as authorities make decisions, they should take into account the numbers are weeks old.

What does this mean to you? Understanding these limitations may help you understand your risk. We are still in the midst of a pandemic that is not under control. Being educated will help all of us from becoming a part of tomorrow’s lagging indicators.

This article was originally published by The Conversation and written by Pamela M. Aaltonen and Catherine Lynne Troisi. You can read it here.

  • Every dog has its day, but it’s not the Fourth of July
    Photo credit: Leigh Prather/Shutterstock.comDogs often react with great fear to July 4th celebrations. Border collies such as this dog are especially sensitive to loud noises.
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    Every dog has its day, but it’s not the Fourth of July

    How to protect anxious pups from holiday booms.

    The Fourth of July can be a miserable day for dogs. The fireworks make scaredy-cats out of many canines.

    That’s because dogs, like humans, are hardwired to be afraid of sudden, loud noises. It is what keeps them safe. Some dogs, though, take that fear to the extreme with panting, howling, pacing, whining, hiding, trembling and even self-injury or escape. And, unlike humans, they don’t know that the fanfare on the Fourth is not a threat. Dogs hear the fireworks and process it as if their world is under siege.

    How a dog responds to noises may be influenced by breed, with German shepherd dogs more likely to pace, while border collies or Australian cattle dogs are more likely to show their fear by hiding.

    While we veterinarians don’t know exactly why some dogs are afraid of fireworks and others not, many dogs that react to one noise often react to others. Therefore, early intervention and treatment are essential in protecting the welfare of these terrified dogs. Here’s how you can protect your dog from fireworks.

    • Take your pet to the vet. If your dog is afraid of fireworks, the first step is to have your veterinarian evaluate him or her, especially if your dog’s noise sensitivity is relatively new. One 2018 study found a link between pain and noise sensitivities in older dogs, indicating that muscle tension or sudden movements in response to a loud noise may aggravate a tender area on the body and thus create an association between the loud noise and pain, causing fear of that particular noise to develop or escalate.
    • Create a “safe haven” in your home with a secure door or gate, preferably away from outside windows or doors. Close the blinds or curtains to reduce outside noises, and play some classical music to help reduce stress by creating a relaxing environment for your dog during the show. A white noise machine or box fan may also help reduce anxiety, along with a pheromone like Adaptil sprayed on bedding, a bandanna, a collar or from a diffuser plugged into the wall.
    • Consider noise-canceling headphones such as Mutt Muffs to muffle the sounds and further reduce noise sensitivities.
    • Find a food your pet will love. This could be cut pieces of boiled chicken or squeeze cheese. Sit with your pet and feed him with each boom. You can also use a long-lasting food-dispensing or puzzle toy to release food continuously during the show. This is to help your dog make a positive association with the noises for the future.
    • Consider anxiety wraps, fabric wraps that exert a gentle pressure on your dog’s body. These may help to lower heart rate and other clinical signs of fear and anxiety, operating on the belief that they swaddle a scared animal and thus calm its fears. These work best, however, in conjunction with a complete behavior treatment plan including medication or behavior modification, or both.
    • When it comes to comforting your dog, the jury is still out. It is difficult, however, to reinforce an emotional response with comfort. Therefore, it is OK to pet your dog when frightened by a noise event so long as the dog appears to be comforted and not more distressed by the attention.

    This article originally appeared on The Conversation. You can read it here.

  • Pollen is getting worse, but you can make things better with these tips from an allergist
    Photo credit: Alex Cofaru/Shutterstock.comA girl in a field of flowers.

    Blooming flowers signal the beginning of spring, but for millions of people, they also signal the onset of the misery: allergy and asthma season. Itchy, watery eyes; sneezing, runny nose; cough and wheezing are triggered by an overreaction of the body to pollen.

    Every spring, trees and grasses release billions of buoyant pollen granules into the air, using the wind to disperse across the countryside in an effort to reproduce. It’s all about survival; plants that release more pollen have the survival advantage.

    As an adult and pediatric allergist-immunologist in the Midwest, the onset of spring signals my busy season treating hundreds of patients for their seasonal allergy and asthma symptoms. If you suffer through the season, know that you are not alone. Throughout history, pollen has taken the fun out of spring for many. In modern times, however, medical science has identified practices and treatments that help.

    Older than the dinosaurs, as wide as the world

    Fossilized specimens of pollen granules have been found predating dinosaurs and alongside Neanderthals.

    And, sinus and asthma symptoms and treatments are documented throughout history and across the globe. People just didn’t know exactly how to treat the symptoms, or exactly what was causing them.

    For example, over 5,000 years ago, the Chinese used the berries of the horse tail plant, ma huang (Ephedra distachya), to relieve congestion and decrease mucous production associated with “plant fever” – a condition affecting people during the fall.

    In Egypt, the “Papyrus Ebers,” written around 1650 B.C., recommended over 20 treatments for cough or difficulty breathing, including honey, dates, juniper and beer.

    Although Homer’s “Iliad” describes the loud noise of breathing in battle as “asthma,” Aretaeus of Cappadocia of the second century A.D. is credited with the first clinical description more consistent with modern understanding of this condition. He wrote of those who suffered that:

    “They open the mouth since no house is sufficient for their respiration, they breathily standing, as if desiring to draw in all the air which they possibly can inhale… the neck swells with the inflation of the breath, the precordia (chest wall) retracted, the pulse becomes small and dense,” and if the symptoms persist, the patient “may produce suffocation after the form of epilepsy.”

    Tobacco leaves
    Tobacco leaves were exported to Europe for experimentation in treating the symptoms of spring time coughing and sneezing. Jeep 2499/Shutterstock.com

    By the time Columbus landed, indigenous populations in Central and South American were utilizing ipecacuanha, a root found in Brazil with expectorant and emetic properties and balsam, which is still used in some cold remedies today. Coca and tobacco leaves, used medicinally by the Incas, were later exported to Europe for additional experimentation for the treatment of rhinitis and asthma.

    Aside from the “plant fever” described in China, the first written description of seasonal respiratory symptoms is credited to Rhazes, a Persian scholar, around 900 A.D. He described the nasal congestion that coincided with the blooming of roses, termed “rose fever.”

    Symptoms noticed, but no cause identified

    As scientific advancement was stifled during the Middle Ages, in large part due to the plague, it wasn’t until 900 years later, in 1819, that Dr. John Bostock published a description of his own seasonal allergies. But he didn’t know what was causing them.

    Having suffered from “summer catarrh” since childhood, Bostock persisted in his study of the condition, despite an initial lackluster response from the medical community.

    In the nine years between his first and second publications, he found only 28 additional cases consistent with his own seasonal allergy symptoms, which perhaps demonstrates the lower prevalence of the condition at the time. He noted that nobility and the privileged classes were more often afflicted by seasonal allergies. This was thought to be the consequence of wealth, culture and an indoor life.

    Societal changes with their roots in the Industrial Revolution, including increased exposure to air pollution, less time spent outdoors, increased pollen counts and improved hygiene, all likely contributed to the increased prevalence of allergies that we continue to see today. They also helped form the hygiene hypothesis, which states that in part decreased exposure to particular bacteria and infections could be leading to the increase in allergic and autoimmune diseases.

    The source of seasonal symptoms at the time was also thought to be caused by the smell of new hay. This led to the coining of the term “hay fever.”

    Bostock instead suspected the recurring symptoms were triggered by the summer heat, since his symptoms improved when he spent the summer on the coast. It would later became common for nobility and aristocrats to spend allergy season in coastal or mountain resorts to avoid bothersome symptoms.

    Identifying the true culprit

    Through methodical study and self-experimentation, Dr. Charles Blackley identified that pollen was to blame for allergy symptoms. He collected, identified, and described various pollens and then determined their allergic properties by rubbing them into his eyes or scratching them on his skin. He then noted which ones resulted in redness and itching. This same technique is used in skin prick testing by allergists today.

    Inspired by discoveries related to vaccination, Dr. Leonard Noon and John Freeman prepared doses of pollen extracts for injection in an effort to desensitize patients with allergic rhinitis in the early 1900s. This effective treatment, called allergy immunotherapy, also known as allergy shots, is still used today.

    Antihistamines first became available in the 1940s, but they caused significant sedation. The formulations with fewer side effects that are used today have only been available since the 1980s.

    Pollen counts likely to grow

    Pollen on a street in Atlanta
    Pollen on a street in Atlanta, March 31, 2019. Lynne Anderson, CC BY-SA

    Though recognized by ancient civilizations, seasonal allergic rhinitis and allergic asthma have only increased in prevalence in recent history and are on the rise, now affecting 10 to 30 percent of the world’s population.

    Fueled by warmer temperatures and increased carbon dioxide levels, pollen seasons are longer, and pollen counts are higher. Many experts believe this will worsen in the coming years due in large part to climate change.

    To keep you and your loved ones safe from pollen, close windows and change out of clothes exposed to pollen as soon as you come indoors.
    To keep you and your loved ones safe from pollen, close windows and change out of clothes exposed to pollen as soon as you come indoors. Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock.com

    What can you do? Often, those who are allergic need a multifaceted approach.

    • Find out what allergens are causing your symptoms. Take note of when your symptoms start by making a note in a calendar or planner.
    • Minimize exposure to allergens. Track pollen counts. When pollen counts are high, keep the windows closed at home and in the car. After spending time outdoors, shower and change clothing to prevent ongoing exposure to pollen.
    • Take a pro-active approach to treating symptoms. Starting medications before symptoms develop can prevent symptoms from getting out of control. This can also decrease the amount of medication needed overall. Long acting non-sedating antihistamines are helpful for itching and sneezing. Nasal corticosteroid sprays are more helpful for stuffy noses.
    • Consider a visit to see a board certified allergist/immunologist. She or he can help you determine which particular pollens maybe the source of your symptoms.
    • Explore the role of immunotherapy with your doctor. Immunotherapy changes the immune response through administration of small regimented doses of allergens over time. This induces a state of tolerance, eventually helping people become less allergic over time.

    While pollen season is coming, taking a multifaceted approach can provide much needed relief from the symptoms that have plagued humankind throughout the millennia.

    This article originally appeared on The Conversation. You can read it here.

  • 22-year-old gives out toothy smiles by providing free 3D-printed dentures to those in need
    Photo credit: Canva3D printing can help dental patients.

    Much like anything else, the cost of dental care has risen as need grows. A report from the American Dental Association found that, in 2024, dental spending grew by $7 billion from 2023. A young engineer is making a difference, though. He has helped put a smile back on the faces of folks in need by providing free dentures made with 3D printers.

    Connor Gibson isn’t a dentist or even an expert on 3D printers. He’s a Tennessee community college student who wants to help people. While studying engineering at Walters State Community College, Gibson volunteered with Remote Area Medical (RAM). RAM is a nonprofit that provides mobile clinics offering free medical, vision, and dental care through volunteers. 

    An issue that bites

    A common issue the clinics found was that many people needed dentures. The cost of dentures can be very pricey, ranging from $452 dollars to over $6,500 depending on the patient’s needs and their insurance coverage. Another issue was availability. Even if a patient could afford dentures, it could take weeks or even months before they could be delivered. 

    But Gibson had an idea. He thought that if he could 3D print pairs of dentures, it would save money and time. After all, having a 3D printer on-site would allow the dentures to be made within hours rather than weeks. A patient could get a free set of dentures the same day as their visit.

    Great idea…but how?

    There was a setback: Gibson had no experience in dentistry or 3D printing at all. In spite of his inexperience, Gibson used his engineering and design skills to teach himself how to use a 3D printer. He also got dental experts to teach him how to make dentures the old fashioned way. This way, he was sure to accurately recreate every detail via 3D printing. After taking an impression, Gibson was then able to design specific dentures per patient.

    “Honestly, if you told me three years ago this is what I would be doing, I would have called you crazy,” Gibson said to CNN. “I made it my mission and studied up like I was doing a test, studying up on videos and documents — anything I could find on how to make a denture using this specific software and how to 3D print it.”

    After Gibson successfully completed a pair of 3D-printed dentures for the first time, he knew it was something special. Seeing the tears of joy on the patient’s face was enough to confirm he was doing the right thing.

    “That first delivery was really a huge eureka moment,” Gibson said. “To see that raw, human emotion and just know that I played a change in this person’s life… it’s very humbling, and I’m beyond blessed.”

    Gibson has since been helping RAM develop more denture mobile clinics that can quickly develop dentures for patients who drop in.

    How to find low-cost dental care near you

    If you or someone you know needs low-cost to free dental care, there are options. In addition to Medicare, Medicaid, and CHIP, you can find local and state programs online. You can also dial 2-1-1 for information.

    Another option dental schools and dental hygiene schools that provide supervised, low-cost care from their students.

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