GOOD.is
GOOD is a collaboration of individuals, businesses, and nonprofits pushing the world forward. Get involved.
  • Home
  • |
  • Columns ▶
    • BoingBoing on GOOD
    • Joe Ippolito on Business
    • Carol Coletta on Cities
    • Alissa Walker on Design
    • Ben Jervey on the Environment
    • Peter Smith on Food
    • Truman National Security Project on Foreign Policy
    • Picture Show
    • Mark Peters on Language
    • Anne Trubek on Literature
    • See All Columns
  • |
  • Video
  • |
  • Infographics
  • |
  • Community
  • |
  • Events
  • Follow GOOD:
  • twitter
  • flickr
  • facebook
  • youtube
  • rss feed
  • Business
  • |
  • Cities
  • |
  • Culture
  • |
  • Design
  • |
  • Education
  • |
  • Environment
  • |
  • Food
  • |
  • Health
  • |
  • Media
  • |
  • People
  • |
  • Politics
  • |
  • Technology
  • |
  • Transportation
  • 3
  • 12

How Might We Increase Comfort as We Navigate Uncertainty?

  • Posted by: Aaron Sklar
  • on September 9, 2009 at 4:36 pm

Anyone who engages with new ideas must develop a certain level of comfort with uncertainty. Once an organization takes a step beyond what it has successfully done in the past—a new offering or engaging a new group of people—uncertainty becomes an uneasy factor.  At a firm like IDEO, stepping into the unknown is a daily experience, and those drawn to collaborating with us are compelled to break away from the status quo, accepting the risks and discomfort that accompany bold moves.

Uncertainty can be a huge challenge for social enterprises and their donors, which are caught up in a culture that commonly develops detailed five-year plans to win funding. These plans lay out activities in advance, and organizations tend not to deviate from them, even if there are findings along the way that identify potentially more effective directions. Below, we suggest four approaches to help organizations increase their level of comfort while making decisions in the face of uncertainty.

Determine what to measure early on. Thinking through measures in advance will help the team recognize quickly whether the work is on track or not. For example in a recent collaboration aimed at reducing unplanned pregnancies, IDEO and The National Campaign decided at the outset that the success of the work would hinge on birth control adherence.

Learn by doing. Try things out on a small scale using prototypes and pilot studies to mitigate risk. In the birth control adherence example, the team tried out their early ideas using mobile phone text prompts and quickly got feedback from women on the effectiveness of the concepts. The feedback informed the next iteration of concepts as well as shifted the method of collecting feedback in the next rounds to include more interactions between the participants.

Let indicators lead the way
. Often it takes years to realize the full impact of an innovation. In the meantime, look for clues to demonstrate whether the work is heading in the right direction. An example of this is the way IDEO is tracking the impact of the Human Centered Design toolkit. We’re using Google Analytics and Twitter buzz to tell us if we’ve developed something that people find interesting. Before we have the stories of real impact in the world, we can know that people are excited about it (which encourages us to keep going), and we can start documenting case studies about the toolkit.

Refine what you are measuring as you learn more. Iteration is the cornerstone of concept generation and is regrettably absent from the typical evaluation mindset. As evaluation progresses, we should be on the lookout for unintended consequences (both positive and negative) and start to incorporate them into our measure as they reveal themselves. In the example of the toolkit, which is available free online, we initially only counted download statistics.  As we learn more about the different audiences for the toolkit, we are able to go a step further by refining our evaluation measures accordingly.

Navigating uncertainty can be both a challenge and a thrill. We’d love to hear from those of you who are engaged in evaluation in this way. Please join the conversation by commenting below.

  • What are great examples of navigating uncertainty?
  • What methods do you recommend for approaching evaluation of new-to-the-world ideas?
  • Are there certain contexts that are more amenable to uncertainty?

Guest Blogger Aaron Sklar leads IDEO’s initiative in measuring social impact. A response from Sean Stannard-Stockton of Tactical Philanthropy Advisors will appear in the next few days.

Read More

  • Filed under: Blog : Innovation in Evaluation
  • Categories: Design
  • Share
  • Discuss
  • Mark it good!
  • Facebook
  •   Twitter
  • Digg
  • Stumble
  • del.icio.us
  • Reddit
Direct link to this post:
Send as an Email:
Your email address:
Recipient's email address:
Message:

X
DISCUSSION: 12 Comments
    • Posted by: Blitz
    • on September 9, 2009 at 7:49 pm

    My biggest challenge in promoting change has always been convincing people that evaluation needs to be an ongoing process.  Too often, organizations or teams come up with an idea, execute it, and refuse to do any evaluation until “the end” (the end of the launch, the end of the program, etc).  They either commit to an idea 0 or 100%, with no middle ground.The problem with this is the incredible missed opportunity to refine their idea, make it stronger and increase its impact – and honestly, how often are ideas perfect the very first time?  When change becomes all or nothing, and there is no room for refinement during the process, it is too big and too risky for most people; this is why people and organizations are so resistant to change. Resistance to change is a direct consequence of evaluating only at the end.Constant evaluation provides organizations the ability to adjust and change course when needed.  It provides organizations with the chance to make change more impactful, and it also allows them to stop bad changes before suffering the full hurt of a completed mistake.  In effect, constant evaluation makes change less risky – since risk is exactly what we’re so worried about to begin with, this should be a no-brainer.

    • Posted by: Aaron Sklar
    • on September 9, 2009 at 8:05 pm

    Amen Lauren! I think you nailed it with the 0 or 100% commitment scenarios. I’ve had the same observations that social enterprises tend to get stuck in one of those mindsets and miss out on a lot of learning in order to avoid the risk of uncertainty; You’re also making a great link between last week’s theme on the value of learning and this week’s theme of using that uncertainty zone as an opportunity to learn.

    • Posted by: olivelife
    • on September 10, 2009 at 2:10 pm

    I love the way the dschool uses post-it notes for a course syllabus – it allows for shifts in the process without abandoning the notion of focus. It leaves room for regular evaluation and multiple voices seem to be able to contribute to its shape. When dealing with social initiatives, this concept could help in evaluation. When things have room to move and be adjusted, which seems part of any social scenario naturally, individuals could feel like breathing room is offered in the process. To me, this represents a token of comfort in the midst of uncertainty. In fact, it seems to celebrate it.I also wonder if personality plays into this conversation. Some individuals love uncertainty and forget that others crave comfort and vice versa. To me, this discussion is as much to do with method as it is to do with leadership and the power of invitation. The HCD Toolkit is an example of how people are invited to move beyond the daunting aspects of entering an unfamiliar community by offering frameworks/structures that allow for uncertainty to exist but with enough guidance or comfort to make it accessible and doable. In light of this, I wonder if some people are meant to be the leaders in offering the structure, while others will use it and build something out of this structure. This can be noted by the emerging organizations who have leaders willing to step into uncertainty but who have enough structure in place to allow others to participate in some measure. When people can participate, then they also feel like they can contribute to some form of evaluation of the process.The thing I’ve appreciated about being involved in a design dialogue on this topic is that design is about iteration, process and potential failings. This tone allows you to more easily embrace uncertainty as part of the process. Watching a group of weavers in Rwanda navigate uncertainty in their social enterprise reminded me that sometimes organizations return to what is most familiar out of survival. If funders had this information, would they allow for social innovation (and all its ambiguities) without a traditional five-year plan? Lastly, “evaluation” can be a word with varying weights – some negative and some positive – depending on who you talk to. For some, evaluation means outcomes could make or break their future while others are pleased to have some way to measure their endeavor. Because of this, I wonder if the word itself might be part of the difficulty in understanding how to measure more effectively.

    • Posted by: Aaron Sklar
    • on September 10, 2009 at 3:25 pm

    Kara, thanks for this thoughtful reply. I’m really excited about your point about providing structure during uncertainty.  That is actually a great way to frame the role of evaluation and I’m kicking myself for not thinking of it as title for the week’s theme.

    It’s an interesting observation you make about personality.  Some people (and organizations) are more comfortable with uncertainty while some prefer the comforts of knowing before they act. For each of us, it’s important to acknowledge our own personality type (and that of our organizations we work with) and to be prepared to seek the right structures to compensate/support ourselves through the uncertainty zone. Finding tools that work for you is a great approach (like you have done with the toolkit)– another avenue is choosing partners to balance out your capabilities/mindset. 

    I also appreciate your thoughts on how loaded the word “evaluation” can become for people. It can be either the heavy hand of judgment or the valued input along the way.  The intention of this blog series is to empower people to realize that any approach to evaluation is a choice that we make, and that we can make that choice in a way that benefits the goals of our initiative.  As you so rightly point out, evaluation can become a powerful opportunity leadership.

    • Posted by: SaraJoy
    • on September 11, 2009 at 7:00 am

    Here, here! So often in life, discomfort is the result of poorly managed expectations: It’s the classic “this won’t hurt a bit” you hear from the well-meaning nurse as she jabs a 4″ needle into your hip, the regularly-spaced reassurances of how important your call is while you wait interminably on hold, the gut-wrenching panic when you try on “your size” at a new boutique only to discover you can’t even button the trousers. In addition to, or perhaps as a result of providing structure in a new (ad)venture, integrated, authentic, continual evaluation creates a different set of expectations in an organization. We expect to discover things that don’t work, we expect middle-of-the-ride course corrections (and the accompanying jolts), we expect transparency and honest critique, and we expect iteration. It’s amazing the levels of “discomfort” we can adapt to if we expect it, and the performance we have the capacity to achieve through it is even more exciting. 

    • Posted by: Aaron Sklar
    • on September 11, 2009 at 2:51 pm

    Thanks for the nice metaphors SaraJoy– really driving home the experience of what blind evaluation feels likes.

    • Posted by: jdeancoffey
    • on September 18, 2009 at 12:19 pm

    I have always found it strange that in the discussion of evaluation we seem to only use the definition of the core of the word “value” that promotes the allusion of objectivity as opposed to the “value(s)” we as human bring to the work. It is all subjective to some degree whether it is quantitative or qualitative. That being said, our ability to be adaptive is one of the things that puts us as humans higher on the evolutionary ladder and thus be able to be comfortable or at least manage the uncertainty that surrounds us.  Designing and utilizing frameworks which allow for and acknowledge that reality and strengthen our ability to make decisions within that context seems to be a critical indicator of a strong and effective organization.  That is not to say it is easy but it really doesn’t seem optional.

    • Posted by: Aaron Sklar
    • on September 18, 2009 at 3:26 pm

    Good point about the values of the evaluator, Jdeancoffey. One’s personal values can be both advantageous (shaped by personal experience) and disadvantageous in terms of introducing bias. This is an important link to this weeks conversation on leveraging informed intuition.

    • Posted by: jmendoza
    • on September 25, 2009 at 6:51 am

    Discomfort is about consequence; I have found most people uncomfortable with the politics and the consequences of performance metrics.  Loved your succinct reference to three key aspects of risk: structure, personality, evaluation.  I add an emphasis on both individual and organizational levels particularly with personality.Those things taken into account, I would perhaps add purpose; it is after all a question of value-ation:  what good at what cost or risk?  Whenever I find people debating task, I suggest rising to ask what is the project goal; whenever goals are in conflict it is helpful to rise to the question of values, and ultimately, purpose.Humans, it is said,  are unique in its ability for empathy: being able to abstract a value, and seeing/feeling those in another person/being. (Though in retrospect, I can think of some dogs I’ve had who were better humans than many people I know, if empathy were the basis for defining what’s unique in human cognitive abilities!   :o )To some risk junkies, it is simply the heady adrenaline rush.  Beating the odds. Getting away with something. Something physical, not philosophical.Thanks for a great discussion. 

    • Posted by: jmendoza
    • on September 25, 2009 at 8:23 am

    For more on complexity, risk, and context – you may want to read an article I had written on Johari, Economic Meltdowns, and System Accidents  – http://matrixed.org/wordpress/strategic-execution/economic-meltdowns-system-accidents-johari-and-you/#comments 

    • Posted by: jmendoza
    • on September 25, 2009 at 8:28 am

    Finally, I’d like to add that one might have to embrace discomfort: it is inherent to the edge, to the unfamiliar.  Even just leaning forward is uncomfortable -  but then, perhaps man has to live with that ambivalence – it has done so ever since our early ancestor decided to rise up on its hindlegs to accommodate its nascent prefrontal cortex’s need to see a more distant horizon.  And we have had to put up with back pain ever since ; ) 

    • Posted by: Aaron Sklar
    • on September 25, 2009 at 1:32 pm

    Julian, thanks for your thoughtful comments and the link. I particularly like the analogy you made to the way pilots navigate uncertainty– continuous course correction.

Login or Sign up to discuss this article

Related Content

  • Blog : Innovation in Evaluation

    How Might We Celebrate Learning through Evaluation?

      Why do we evaluate? Sometimes it’s for reflective validation: qualifying the success of a program after it is ...
    Read & Discuss

  • Blog : Innovation in Evaluation

    How Might We Emphasize Cost Effective Evaluation Tools?

    Emphasizing cost effective evaluation tools can get us better results with ...
    Read & Discuss

  • Blog : Innovation in Evaluation

    How Might We Measure What’s Most Meaningful?

    We live in a society that has refined its measurement of economic activity to an extreme degree. Indeed, ...
    Read & Discuss

  • Blog : Innovation in Evaluation

    Accept Discomfort as We Navigate Uncertainty

    This post is a response to "How Might We Increase Comfort as We Navigate Uncertainty?" ...
    Read & Discuss

  • Blog : Innovation in Evaluation

    Innovation and Evaluation are Inseparable

    On August 12th, thought leaders from diverse organizations and viewpoints came together for a roundtable workshop to ...
    Read & Discuss

Recent Readers

  • Tali Catz
See all

This Week In Blogs

  • Most Discussed
  • Most GOODMarked
  1. How Thanksgiving Got Its Turkey
  2. Is Newsweek’s Sarah Palin Cover Sexist?
  3. Transparency: The Effects of Bike Commuting on Obesity
  4. Prison and College: California’s Ridiculous Priorities
  5. Are You Raising a Furkid?
  6. The GOOD 100: Cowpooling
  7. Sad or Cute: Hermit Crab Makes Home in Broken Bottle
  8. The Charter for Compassion
  9. Tips on How to Reduce Food Packaging Waste
  10. New School: How the Web Liberalized Liberal Arts Education
  1. The Charter for Compassion
  2. New School: How the Web Liberalized Liberal Arts Education
  3. The GOOD Guide to COP15: The Fire this Time: Copenhagen and the War for the Future
  4. Singularity 101: What Is the Singularity?
  5. Picture Show: Breach
  6. Intermission: Eye-popping 3D Building Projections
  7. Charging Forward with Mission Motor’s Electric Superbike
  8. EyeWriter: Paralyzed Artist Draws with His Eyes
  9. Tips on How to Reduce Food Packaging Waste
  10. Prison and College: California’s Ridiculous Priorities

GOOD Magazine
About
|
Join
|
Sign In

Categories

  • Business
  • Cities
  • Culture
  • Design
  • Education
  • Environment
  • Food
  • Health
  • Media
  • People
  • Politics
  • Technology
  • Transportation

Special Features

  • Blogs
  • Events
  • Infographics
  • Look
  • Picture Show
  • Q&A
  • Video

Community

  • Community Board
  • Member directory
  • Join the Community

Social

  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • YouTube
  • Flickr

Magazine

  • Current issue
  • Back issues
  • Subscribe
  • Gift a gift
  • Renew/Service

GOOD

  • What is GOOD?
  • Make GOOD better
© GOOD Worldwide LLC. - all rights reserved
  • Company details
  • Contact
  • Advertise
  • Careers
  • RSS
  • Privacy
  • Terms
  • Powered by Verkata