This spring's protests and revolutions throughout the Arab world brought new hope for freedom to the politically oppressed and economically stagnant region. But as the "Arab spring" turns into summer, will the wave of energy that inspired protesters across the region persist?
Here's the outlook for some of the Arab world's most newsworthy nations: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen.
Spring Awakening:
A 26-year fruit vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi had a college degree but zero career prospects. When a government worker disrupted his hustle, he burned himself to death as a protest against Tunisia’s authoritarian regime. Thus began the Arab spring (well, actually it was still winter). The act sparked widespread protests and led to the defection of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia’s ruler for 23 years.
Tunisia's uprising was remarkable for its secular roots, its nonviolent methods, and its universal objectives: the right to lead a better life, to make a fair living, and to avoid police oppression. Such values set the tone for the similar protests throughout the world later that spring.
Summer Forecast:
Like the chubby kid sent away to fat camp, Tunisia will spend the summer reinventing itself. Tunisians will take to the polls on July 24 and get the chance to elect a congress to rewrite the constitution. And they’ll welcome economic support from the Obama administration, which is eager to reward a successful democratic transition in a region full of autocrats.Yet there’s one potential summer bummer: the political party with the most name recognition is an Islamist group, whose potential for electoral success is making secular Tunisians worried that their nonreligious revolution might yield an Islamic government.
Spring Awakening:
Eyes around the world tuned in to spectacular video footage emerging from Egypt, the Arab world's most populous nation, when Tunisian-inspired protests erupted on the streets of Cairo and Alexandria in January. Relying on social media and cell phones, the youth activists took up the mission of their Tunisian counterparts, demanding an end to the rampant police brutality, corruption, and unemployment under Minster Hosni Mubarak’s 30 year-old regime.
The uprisings led to Mubarak’s resignation on Feb. 11 but the military still runs the show—at least while the country prepares for elections later this year.
Summer Forecast:
Nothing says summer like a crime wave. With a void in police power in the aftermath of the revolution, everything from soccer hooliganism to violence between Muslims and Christians has broken out. Reports say that police have fled crime scenes rather than make arrests. And recently the military has exercised disturbing crackdowns on protesters and an anti-military blogger.
However, Egypt must nurture civil liberties if it wants to do business with the United States. The US intends to reward the nascent democracy—and entice neighboring regions to reform—by promoting Egypt's economic growth. On May 19, President Obama announced that the international community would relieve $1 billion of Egyptian debt in an effort to spur investment there and jump-start the fledgling democracy's economy.
Spring Awakening:
Libyans also jumped on the North African democracy bandwagon to depose Colonel Muammar el-Gaddafi, who ruled the nation for 40 years. The international community was pretty stoked; everybody knows Gaddafi is more volatile than Charlie Sheen on a coke binge.
Summer Forecast:
Sadly, the Libyan protests quickly turned into the region’s most violent conflict between government forces and the opposition. In what looks like an all-out civil war, Gaddafi has bombed and hunted down his own people with government troops and sub-Saharan African mercenaries. While NATO and the US launched airstrikes to help prevent the massacre of the ill-equipped rebels, the conflict seems to have entered a stalemate.
In Obama’s May 19 address, he announced that Libya cannot be the next Iraq. According to the president, the US’s goal is not to force regime change from the outside by overthrowing Gaddafi but to prevent a genocide. Although Obama probably wouldn’t mind if Gaddafi went away.
Spring Awakening:
What reasonable person wouldn’t want to see a regime change in Syria? President Bashar al-Assad funds Islamist militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas while his alliance with Iran makes Western leaders’ skin crawl. He’s also a strident anti-Semite who’s accused Jews of killing Jesus and attempting to murder Mohammad. Infamous for violent oppression and massacre of Syria's Sunni majority, the Assad family has ruled the country for the past 40 years.
Summer Forecast:
While Assad has made some concessions to the protesters by firing his cabinet and other local officials, his security apparatus has bitterly resisted protests since they first broke out in February. In mid-April, a huge military crackdown came complete with tanks, mass arrests, and disappearances. Intent on protecting the power of the Alawites— Assad’s Shiite minority sect that makes up the political and business class— the Assad regime’s fear of the Sunni majority’s revenge likely stokes its violent reaction. Yet Syrian protesters refuse to leave the streets, even though the government is willing to fire on peaceful protesters and hundreds have died.
The US and the European Union have imposed sanctions on Assad and other top officials, and in his May 19 address, Obama said that Assad, “can lead that transition [to democracy] or get out of the way.”
Spring Awakening:
The demographics in Bahrain are the flip-side of Syria: the monarchy and business class make up a Sunni minority that rules over the small island nation’s Shiite majority. Obviously this type of social exclusion and oppression is not going to fly at a time when pro-democracy movements are flourishing across the region, and Bahrainis have taken to to the streets despite full-blown resistance from the government.
Summer Forecast:
King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa’s crackdown on the opposition has been severe. He even called in 2,000 troops from Saudi Arabia this March to battle the youth his government claims has been drugged and stoked by foreign agents like Iranian Shiites. Mass arrest, rushed trials, the destruction of mosques, and torture have proved useful tools in keeping the opposition under control, but smaller protests have continued.
Summer in Bahrain promises a mix of sunshine, police brutality, and race cars. No, seriously. Bahrain’s government wants to reassure foreign markets by giving the impression of a return to normalcy in the capital Manama, even though protests have moved to the villages. King Khalifa announced that the formal state of emergency will end on June 1. But perhaps the question on the minds of many elite Bahrainis is what will happen with the Bahrain Grand Prix? Bahrain’s most famous annual party, its scheduled date in March was indefinitely pushed back by the political unrest.
Spring Awakening:
Yemen has never been known for its stability. The poorest in the region and an important training ground for Al Qaeda, this mountainous country has long been plagued by tribal conflict, aggressive separatist movements, and anti-government opposition. Yet the spring protests that energized the country’s anti-authoritarian movement belong to a different breed of struggle altogether. As the The New York Times reported, one religious figure in the city of Taiz captured the zeitgeist of the Arab spring when he announced "'This is not a revolution against a person, a family or a tribe...This is a revolution against oppression and corruption.'"
Summer Forecast:
Recent protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s 33-year rule have been huge—tens of thousands of demonstrators have gathered in recent weeks—and violently repelled. While Saleh has agreed to leave office in exchange for immunity, negotiations fell through when he refused to sign the peace agreement at the last second this Sunday, causing some of the conflict's most violent fighting thus far. Protesters claim he’s stalling and want him out of office and in front of a judge.
Summer in Yemen promises to be more hectic than a mosh pit in a Bonnaroo mud pile. Any sort of transfer of power will be risky given Yemen’s fractious and extremely well-armed political factions.
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| After the Arab Spring, What’s the Forecast for Summer? by Zak Stone |
This spring's protests and revolutions throughout the Arab world brought new hope for freedom to the politically oppressed and economically stagnant region. But as the "Arab spring" turns into summer, will the wave of energy that inspired protesters across the region persist?
Here's the outlook for some of the Arab world's most newsworthy nations: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen.
Spring Awakening:
A 26-year fruit vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi had a college degree but zero career prospects. When a government worker disrupted his hustle, he burned himself to death as a protest against Tunisia’s authoritarian regime. Thus began the Arab spring (well, actually it was still winter). The act sparked widespread protests and led to the defection of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia’s ruler for 23 years.
Tunisia's uprising was remarkable for its secular roots, its nonviolent methods, and its universal objectives: the right to lead a better life, to make a fair living, and to avoid police oppression. Such values set the tone for the similar protests throughout the world later that spring.
Summer Forecast:
Like the chubby kid sent away to fat camp, Tunisia will spend the summer reinventing itself. Tunisians will take to the polls on July 24 and get the chance to elect a congress to rewrite the constitution. And they’ll welcome economic support from the Obama administration, which is eager to reward a successful democratic transition in a region full of autocrats.Yet there’s one potential summer bummer: the political party with the most name recognition is an Islamist group, whose potential for electoral success is making secular Tunisians worried that their nonreligious revolution might yield an Islamic government.
Spring Awakening:
Eyes around the world tuned in to spectacular video footage emerging from Egypt, the Arab world's most populous nation, when Tunisian-inspired protests erupted on the streets of Cairo and Alexandria in January. Relying on social media and cell phones, the youth activists took up the mission of their Tunisian counterparts, demanding an end to the rampant police brutality, corruption, and unemployment under Minster Hosni Mubarak’s 30 year-old regime.
The uprisings led to Mubarak’s resignation on Feb. 11 but the military still runs the show—at least while the country prepares for elections later this year.
Summer Forecast:
Nothing says summer like a crime wave. With a void in police power in the aftermath of the revolution, everything from soccer hooliganism to violence between Muslims and Christians has broken out. Reports say that police have fled crime scenes rather than make arrests. And recently the military has exercised disturbing crackdowns on protesters and an anti-military blogger.
However, Egypt must nurture civil liberties if it wants to do business with the United States. The US intends to reward the nascent democracy—and entice neighboring regions to reform—by promoting Egypt's economic growth. On May 19, President Obama announced that the international community would relieve $1 billion of Egyptian debt in an effort to spur investment there and jump-start the fledgling democracy's economy.
Spring Awakening:
Libyans also jumped on the North African democracy bandwagon to depose Colonel Muammar el-Gaddafi, who ruled the nation for 40 years. The international community was pretty stoked; everybody knows Gaddafi is more volatile than Charlie Sheen on a coke binge.
Summer Forecast:
Sadly, the Libyan protests quickly turned into the region’s most violent conflict between government forces and the opposition. In what looks like an all-out civil war, Gaddafi has bombed and hunted down his own people with government troops and sub-Saharan African mercenaries. While NATO and the US launched airstrikes to help prevent the massacre of the ill-equipped rebels, the conflict seems to have entered a stalemate.
In Obama’s May 19 address, he announced that Libya cannot be the next Iraq. According to the president, the US’s goal is not to force regime change from the outside by overthrowing Gaddafi but to prevent a genocide. Although Obama probably wouldn’t mind if Gaddafi went away.
Spring Awakening:
What reasonable person wouldn’t want to see a regime change in Syria? President Bashar al-Assad funds Islamist militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas while his alliance with Iran makes Western leaders’ skin crawl. He’s also a strident anti-Semite who’s accused Jews of killing Jesus and attempting to murder Mohammad. Infamous for violent oppression and massacre of Syria's Sunni majority, the Assad family has ruled the country for the past 40 years.
Summer Forecast:
While Assad has made some concessions to the protesters by firing his cabinet and other local officials, his security apparatus has bitterly resisted protests since they first broke out in February. In mid-April, a huge military crackdown came complete with tanks, mass arrests, and disappearances. Intent on protecting the power of the Alawites— Assad’s Shiite minority sect that makes up the political and business class— the Assad regime’s fear of the Sunni majority’s revenge likely stokes its violent reaction. Yet Syrian protesters refuse to leave the streets, even though the government is willing to fire on peaceful protesters and hundreds have died.
The US and the European Union have imposed sanctions on Assad and other top officials, and in his May 19 address, Obama said that Assad, “can lead that transition [to democracy] or get out of the way.”
Spring Awakening:
The demographics in Bahrain are the flip-side of Syria: the monarchy and business class make up a Sunni minority that rules over the small island nation’s Shiite majority. Obviously this type of social exclusion and oppression is not going to fly at a time when pro-democracy movements are flourishing across the region, and Bahrainis have taken to to the streets despite full-blown resistance from the government.
Summer Forecast:
King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa’s crackdown on the opposition has been severe. He even called in 2,000 troops from Saudi Arabia this March to battle the youth his government claims has been drugged and stoked by foreign agents like Iranian Shiites. Mass arrest, rushed trials, the destruction of mosques, and torture have proved useful tools in keeping the opposition under control, but smaller protests have continued.
Summer in Bahrain promises a mix of sunshine, police brutality, and race cars. No, seriously. Bahrain’s government wants to reassure foreign markets by giving the impression of a return to normalcy in the capital Manama, even though protests have moved to the villages. King Khalifa announced that the formal state of emergency will end on June 1. But perhaps the question on the minds of many elite Bahrainis is what will happen with the Bahrain Grand Prix? Bahrain’s most famous annual party, its scheduled date in March was indefinitely pushed back by the political unrest.
Spring Awakening:
Yemen has never been known for its stability. The poorest in the region and an important training ground for Al Qaeda, this mountainous country has long been plagued by tribal conflict, aggressive separatist movements, and anti-government opposition. Yet the spring protests that energized the country’s anti-authoritarian movement belong to a different breed of struggle altogether. As the The New York Times reported, one religious figure in the city of Taiz captured the zeitgeist of the Arab spring when he announced "'This is not a revolution against a person, a family or a tribe...This is a revolution against oppression and corruption.'"
Summer Forecast:
Recent protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s 33-year rule have been huge—tens of thousands of demonstrators have gathered in recent weeks—and violently repelled. While Saleh has agreed to leave office in exchange for immunity, negotiations fell through when he refused to sign the peace agreement at the last second this Sunday, causing some of the conflict's most violent fighting thus far. Protesters claim he’s stalling and want him out of office and in front of a judge.
Summer in Yemen promises to be more hectic than a mosh pit in a Bonnaroo mud pile. Any sort of transfer of power will be risky given Yemen’s fractious and extremely well-armed political factions.
