Prognostication is the halmark of punditry. Really, there are few better ways to garner media attention than with a bold, seemingly crazy prediction for geopolitical events. However, there is a tricky problem with bold, seemingly crazy predictions: They’re often totally wrong-sometimes humorously so. For evidence of that, check out Foreign Policy‘s 10 Worst Predictions of 2009, which includes everything from the panic over swine flu to the idea that the global economic donwturn would beget a total economic collapse of apocalyptic proportions.
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Why mass shootings spawn conspiracy theories
Mass shootings and conspiracy theories have a long history.
While conspiracy theories are not limited to any topic, there is one type of event that seems particularly likely to spark them: mass shootings, typically defined as attacks in which a shooter kills at least four other people.
When one person kills many others in a single incident, particularly when it seems random, people naturally seek out answers for why the tragedy happened. After all, if a mass shooting is random, anyone can be a target.
Pointing to some nefarious plan by a powerful group – such as the government – can be more comforting than the idea that the attack was the result of a disturbed or mentally ill individual who obtained a firearm legally.
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