It's impossible to know what factor global warming had in the tornado outbreak last week. But we do know that short-term forecasting saved lives.
Before and after photos in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, from NOAA.
After the devastation from last week's historic tornado outbreak had been reported, everyone in the environmental field was compelled to try to answer the question: So, what did this have to do with climate change? Anyone who was being honest had to answer: Well, we don't really know. It's really complicated.
Think Progress ran responses from a number of climate scientists. Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, provided the meatiest quote:
It is irresponsible not to mention climate change. … The environment in which all of these storms and the tornadoes are occurring has changed from human influences (global warming).\n
All very true. Climate change must be mentioned. Every weather event is now affected by the warmer temperatures that humans have created. But as the rest of the climatologists interviewed by Think Progress (and countless other outlets) make clear, we just don't have any real sense of exactly what role climate change has in extreme weather events, especially tornadoes.
Climate Central, the unique media organization that puts journalists and scientists in the same office, is in my opinion the most reliable source out there for credible science behind weather and climate. Here's what Climate Central's Andrew Freedman wrote:
In this case, with the second-deadliest tornado outbreak in US history, and with the most tornadoes for any April since records began in the early 1950s, it's important to understand that the scientific evidence indicates that climate change probably played a very small role, if any, in stirring up this violent weather. This might disappoint some advocates who are already using this to highlight the risks of climate change-related extreme weather.\n
While we don't know exactly what role climate change had in the tornado outbreak, we do know that the short-term tornado forecasting saved lives. This forecasting was made possible by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellites. And these satellites are the very same that the GOP—including Alabama's entire Republican delegation to the House—voted to defund.
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