The 2020 election is a year away, but Donald Trump has some serious ground to cover if he doesn’t want it to be a historical blowout.
A Washington Post- ABC News poll released Tuesday shows that Trump loses by double digits to the top Democratic contenders.
Vice President Joe Biden (56%-39%); Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (54%-39%); Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont (56%-39%); South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (52%-41%); and Sen. Kamala Harris of California (52%-41%) all have big leads over the president.
According to Gallup, Trump’s approval rating is at 41% and his disapproval rating is 57%, three percentage points lower than his high of 60%.
One area where Trump should be specifically alarmed is with independents who are around 30% of the electorate.
While Trump won independents by 4% in 2016, in 2020, he is very unpopular with them. A recent poll published in The Washington Post found Trump trailing Biden by 17%, Warren and Sanders by 16%, Kamala Harris by 11%, and Pete Buttigieg by 11%.
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Trump’s poll numbers look so bad that even the folks at Fox News can’t spin them into anything positive.
On Tuesday morning, Fox News political editor Chris Stirewalt told anchor Bill Hemmer that if the election were held today, Biden would enjoy a solid victory over Trump.
“If the election were held tomorrow and it was Joe Biden verses Donald Trump and it was a snap election, Joe Biden would beat Donald Trump, and it wouldn’t be a very close race,” Stirewalt said in a video posted to Raw Story. “But, what Republicans also know is they’re going to spend a billion dollars roughing up Joe Biden.”
But he cautioned that in elections, money isn’t necessarily everything.
“The lesson for Trump here is, and he’s gotta remember this . . . if money mattered and organization mattered that much, Jeb Bush would have won the Republican nomination in 2016 and Hillary Clinton would be the president today,” he added.
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Skeptics will point to 2016 election polls that showed Hillary Clinton with a lead over Trump. But the average of the top 13 final national polls had Clinton up by an average of 3.1% and, on election day, she won the popular vote by 2.1%.
But, as we know, presidential elections are won in the electoral college. So how do Biden and Trump stack up?
According to The New York Times, Biden leads Trump in five of the six battleground states that went Republican in 2016. Biden is ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and Arizona. Trump has the lead in North Carolina and Michigan is a tie.
Sanders and Trump are even at three states a piece and Warren lags behind Trump, leading in just one state.
