Here Are The Long Odds Of Winning Warren Buffett’s $1MM Perfect Bracket Challenge

Calling the likelihood a ‘long shot’ is overselling it

March Madness means it’s time for brackets, pools, and payouts. While most tournament pools only require you to be better than the competition in predicting the outcome of games, Warren Buffett’s offer to his Berkshire Hathaway employees requires something a little more difficult—perfection.

Buffett has offered a cool million dollars to anyone who predicts the winner of all 32 first-round games taking place Thursday and Friday. So is the savvy billionaire overextending himself with this pledge?

Not at all, according to statistical analysis. Picking the winner of all 32 games is as astronomically difficult as it sounds. The rough math on picking all 32 winners amounts to something on order of 1/2^32, or 1 in 4,294,967,296.

Here’s a video to give you a sense of how quickly the odds against you get out of hand:

You might be thinking to yourself, But that’s if the winners are randomly selected. I have data analysis and history on my side to improve my odds. And you might be right. The 1s will most likely beat the 16s handily, but at some point, something random is going to happen. Odds are, actually, that several random, unforeseeable acts will tip games in unexpected directions. So nailing down the outcome of 32 games, even using rankings, is unlikely.

Last year, the longest streak seen in the combined, ESPN, CBS, Bleacher Report, and Yahoo pools was just 25 games. In 2015, it was 34, which is thought to be the longest perfection streak in tourney history. So, going back to Buffett’s offer: In the entire history of tracking tournament entries, one person out of millions (possibly billions) of entrants stayed perfect past the 32 games. Now, what are the odds that solitary soul happens to be an employee at Berkshire Hathaway?

Something tells us Buffett’s money is going to be safe, but don’t let that dash your hopes.

via Gage Skidmore / Flickr

If you are totally ready to move on from Donald Trump, you're not alone. According to a report last April from the Wason Center National Survey of 2020 Voters, "President Trump will be the least popular president to run for reelection in the history of polling."

Yes, you read that right, "history of polling."

Keep Reading Show less
via Around the NFL / Twitter

After three years on the sidelines, Colin Kapernick will be working out for multiple NFL teams on Saturday, November 16 at the Atlanta Falcons facility.

The former 49er quarterback who inflamed the culture wars by peacefully protesting against social injustice during the national anthem made the announcement on Twitter Tuesday.

Kaepernick is scheduled for a 15-minute on-field workout and an interview that will be recorded and sent to all 32 teams. The Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, and Detroit Lions are expected to have representatives in attendance.

RELATED: Joe Namath Says Colin Kaepernick And Eric Reid Should Be Playing In The NFL

"We like our quarterback situation right now," Miami head coach, Brian Flores said. "We're going to do our due diligence."

NFL Insider Steve Wyche believes that the workout is the NFL's response to multiple teams inquiring about the 32-year-old quarterback. A league-wide workout would help to mitigate any potential political backlash that any one team may face for making an overture to the controversial figure.

Kapernick is an unrestricted free agent (UFA) so any team could have reached out to him. But it's believed that the interested teams are considering him for next season.

RELATED: Video of an Oakland train employee saving a man's life is so insane, it looks like CGI

Earlier this year, Kaepernick and Carolina Panthers safety Eric Reid reached a financial settlement with the league in a joint collusion complaint. The players alleged that the league conspired to keep them out after they began kneeling during the national anthem in 2016.

Before the 2019 season, Kaepernick posted a video of himself working out on twitter to show he was in great physical condition and ready to play.

Kaepnick took the 49ers to the Super Bowl in 2012 and the NFC Championship game in 2013.

He has the 23rd-highest career passer rating in NFL history, the second-best interception rate, and the ninth-most rushing yards per game of any quarterback ever. In 2016, his career to a sharp dive and he won only of 11 games as a starter.


In the category of "claims to fame nobody wants," the United States can now add "exporter of white supremacist ideology" to its repertoire. Super.

Russell Travers, acting director of the National Counterterrorism Center, made this claim in a briefing at The Washington Institute in Washington, D.C. "For almost two decades, the United States has pointed abroad at countries who are exporters of extreme Islamist ideology," Travers said. "We are now being seen as the exporter of white supremacist ideology. That's a reality with which we are going to have to deal."

Keep Reading Show less

Between Alexa, Siri, and Google, artificial intelligence is quickly changing us and the way we live. We no longer have to get up to turn on the lights or set the thermostat, we can find the fastest route to work with a click, and, most importantly, tag our friends in pictures. But interacting with the world isn't the only thing AI is making easier – now we can use it save the world, too.

Keep Reading Show less
Good News