Turn on the TV news, or look at a news website, and you’ll see charts, graphics, and dashboards that supposedly indicate the latest with COVID-19 – statistics revealing the number of tests, cases, hospitalizations and deaths, along with where they happened and whether they are rising or falling.

Different stories are told depending on the dashboard. But one thing is certain: These indicators lag behind the actions we take, or don’t take, on COVID-19. As researchers who focus on public health, we can tell you that a fully accurate, real-time snapshot of the progress of the virus isn’t possible.


Some don’t get tested

There are many reasons for this. Here’s one: diagnostic testing data are incomplete. Someone infected with COVID-19 must first come in contact with the virus either through the air or (less likely) environmental surfaces.

Symptoms show between two and 14 days later. But at least 40% of those infected will never manifest symptoms, or show such mild ones they don’t even suspect they have COVID-19. So they may never get tested, which means they won’t show up in the total number of tests, or the total number of cases.

Another example: because of the lack of testing availability – a widespread problem in the U.S. since the start of the pandemic – not everyone who should be tested gets a test.

And another: the tests themselves are not perfect. Up to one-third who get a negative result may actually be infected. This happens because they are tested before they have a viral load sufficient enough for detection. Or maybe the sampling is not adequate. Or perhaps the test itself simply failed.

Case numbers don’t tell the full story

This is why problems arise when we use case numbers to determine disease levels in a community. Case counts actually reflect what was happening in a community weeks earlier. Four weeks, for instance, could elapse between the time a person is exposed to the virus and when they are reported as a case.

Even the best testing results often take a week to report to public health authorities, and longer to appear on dashboards. Some testing results, seriously delayed, may take ten days or more.

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Other factors impact the metrics. Laboratory results, often released in batches, may introduce artificial variation in case numbers. Someone who tested two days ago, then got a result back immediately, might be added on the same day as someone who was sick two weeks ago, but whose test results were delayed.

To smooth out these variations, it helps to look at a rolling seven-day case average.

Hospitalization is a clearer metric for assessing the level of community disease. Those who are seriously ill, in most cases, will be hospitalized whether previously tested or not. Data suggests roughly one in five infected persons are hospitalized.

Individuals seem to do okay for the first week, with more life-threatening symptoms showing in the second. That means hospitalizations represent exposures that happened three or four weeks earlier.

Again, a seven-day rolling average evens out artificial variations. There is one caveat for this: Though hospitalization is a useful metric, only about 20% of infected people need it. That means hospitalization numbers alone underestimate the number of people infected and what age groups they represent.

States vary on cause of death

The death numbers are not a reliable indicator either. In some states, to count as a COVID-19 death, the deceased must have had a test reporting positive. In other states, probable cases are reported.

As clinicians learn how to better treat COVID-19, fatality rates are dropping. Deaths, the longest lagging indicator, reflect people who were infected six or eight weeks earlier. When comparing one region to another, deaths are best expressed as rates – a ratio of deaths to population.

Another issue: News reports do not always clearly distinguish between diagnostic testing, which shows if you currently have COVID-19, and antibody testing, which shows if you had it in the past, and now harbor antibodies that can fight it.

So far, however, antibody testing has not provided a useful picture of who has been infected and who has not. Once that happens, it could provide researchers and clinicians with some indicators on how widely the virus has spread.

Though the dashboards are ubiquitous on television, none of these frequently used indicators they feature is perfect. Still, taken together, they provide a reasonable approximation of COVID-19 transmission in communities. But as authorities make decisions, they should take into account the numbers are weeks old.

What does this mean to you? Understanding these limitations may help you understand your risk. We are still in the midst of a pandemic that is not under control. Being educated will help all of us from becoming a part of tomorrow’s lagging indicators.

This article was originally published by The Conversation and written by Pamela M. Aaltonen and Catherine Lynne Troisi. You can read it here.

  • Happiness expert’s refreshing take that the best friendships are useless
    Women laughing on scooters.Photo credit: Canva
    ,

    Happiness expert’s refreshing take that the best friendships are useless

    “If you want to be happier you need more useless.”

    As Americans have become more tribal, isolated, and downright lonely, the need for quality friendships is at an all-time high. Yet, some of the most important relationships begin when we aren’t looking for them. Sometimes something seemingly insignificant, like a simple hobby or a mutual love, slowly grows into a real connection.

    Dr. Arthur Brooks shared his insights into friendships on the Mighty Pursuit podcast. He explains that there are three types of friendships, and the one that matters most is a useless friendship.

    Aristotle believed friendship was the secret to happiness

    (Discussion begins at 1 hour into the video.) Brooks traces the value and importance of friendship back to the famous philosopher Aristotle. He explains that Aristotle believed the ultimate secret behind a happy life was friends. Brooks says, “In the Nicomachean Ethics, he [Aristotle] said there’s three levels of friendship that bring more happiness. And if you get stuck at lower levels, it’s going to be a problem for your life.”

    The first type of friendship is transactional. These are people with whom you do business or have a casual acquaintance. You don’t really know them on a personal level. The relationship is friendly, but if business or a reason for interacting stops, so does the friendship.

    Brooks describes transactional friendships, saying, “There’s nothing wrong with it, it’s just incomplete.” He continues, “If that’s all you have you’re going to be hopelessly lonely.”

    The second type is friendships of beauty. They are chosen out of admiration. These are people we want to be around. Brooks describes it as, “You’re magnetic. It could be because of your physical beauty, your sense of humor, your intelligence, or your success.”

    Relationships built on admiration are better than transactional, but Brooks warns, “If that beauty goes away, so does that friendship.”

    sporting events, transactional friends, admiration, everyday connextion
    Fans at a sporting event.
    Photo credit Canva

    Useless friends are the best

    Aristotle described the friendship that brings the most satisfaction as Atelic, meaning it has no specific end or goal. Brooks calls it “Useless. It’s cosmically, beautifully useless. And so if you want to be happier, you need more useless people you just love.”

    Describing the characteristics of this type of friend, Brooks shares, “you’re walking together, shoulder to shoulder, into the future and looking at something you both love mutually.” He continues, “There’s always a third love in these perfect friendships.”

    Examples offered by Brooks might be a couple loving their children or best friends who love a sports franchise. Brooks says, “It can be dumb, or it can be cosmic. But the whole point is that third love is the glue that makes that, that useless relationship beautiful and perfect to you.”

    laughing friends, kinship, well-being, companionship
    Women laughing and dancing.
    Photo credit Canva

    Science loves a useless friendship

    Research supports Aristotle’s belief that having a friendship without an agenda makes for a richer and happier life. A 2023 study in Frontiers found that friendships valued for the stimulating companionship and shared activities predicted higher well-being, life satisfaction, and personal growth. Best friends aren’t based on networking or usefulness.

    A 2024 study in the National Library of Medicine found that high-quality best friendships lowered loneliness and boosted self-esteem. Meaningful relationships can begin with a shared love, but over time, become a part of who the friends actually are.

    hobbies, mutual interests, shared space, proximity relationships
    Friends enjoy drinks together.
    Photo credit Canva

    A 2022 study at Cornell University revealed that repeated physical proximity and similar interests strongly increased the likelihood of friendship formation regardless of background or social differences. Activities like walks, hobbies, sports, and creative interests offered a shared space where even unlikely friendships grow.

    Brooks suggests the most important friends come from connecting over the smallest things. They don’t happen because we need them; more so, they exist for their own sake. These “useless friendships” are grounded in mutual joy and common loves. They may seem small or incidental at first, but the Atelic relationship shapes our happiness the most.

  • Benefits of mindfulness meditation go far beyond relaxation – here’s what it is and how to practice it
    Mindfulness meditation is a process of noticing difficult thoughts and feelings rather than shutting them out.Photo credit: Marco VDM/E+ via Getty Images
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    Benefits of mindfulness meditation go far beyond relaxation – here’s what it is and how to practice it

    Yuval Hadash J. David Creswell magine being asked to sit alone in a quiet room for 15 minutes with nothing to do – no phone, no music, no external distraction. In a well-known 2014 study, many participants found that task so challenging that they chose to press a button to give themselves an unpleasant electric shock instead…

    magine being asked to sit alone in a quiet room for 15 minutes with nothing to do – no phone, no music, no external distraction. In a well-known 2014 study, many participants found that task so challenging that they chose to press a button to give themselves an unpleasant electric shock instead of continuing to sit with their thoughts and sensations.

    Because being with their own thoughts, emotions and bodily sensations can be so difficult, people often turn away from them. Smartphones offer constant distraction from boredom or stress, allowing users to disengage from their present-moment sensations and thoughts with a quick swipe or tap.

    But avoiding unpleasant internal experience can backfire. Studies show that doing so is associated with a range of mental health problems, including anxiety and depression.

    We are psychological scientists who study mindfulness and how it affects stress, health and well-being.

    Mindfulness is a mental state that people can learn to cultivate through training. When people are mindful, they direct their attention toward their moment-to-moment bodily sensations, emotions and thoughts, and they meet those experiences with an attitude of curiosity and open acceptance.

    Mindfulness can be cultivated through “mindful moments” in daily life, moments in which people intentionally stay present with what they do, hear, see or feel. However, formal mindfulness meditation involves sustained practice that systematically trains attention and acceptance. Our research shows that training acceptance during mindfulness meditation can substantially improve your emotional well-being.

    Tuning into experience can be hard – and helpful

    Popular culture often portrays mindfulness as a way of relaxing. But we’ve found that mindfulness practice can often feel surprisingly difficult. In one of our studies, participants who directed their attention to their thoughts and feelings during a 20-minute mindfulness meditation noticed six times more unpleasant experiences than pleasant ones.

    This doesn’t mean they were doing it wrong. Turning your attention inward can feel challenging. Often, it brings you into contact with experiences that you normally try to push away, such as feeling bored, uncomfortable or agitated. However, we’ve also found that facing difficult experiences during mindfulness training can have positive effects.

    In particular, adopting an accepting attitude toward your experiences seems to drive many of the positive effects of mindfulness. Our research shows that developing the capacity for acceptance through mindfulness meditation can reduce feelings of loneliness and increase positive emotions, such as happiness. It also reduces stress hormones and helps people notice more positive experiences during stressful situations.

    In these studies, we have found that acceptance is the critical driver. When acceptance is removed from mindfulness training, these benefits largely disappear.

    The power of learning to accept experience

    A key part of mindfulness practice involves turning toward difficult experiences, such as like stress, boredom and pain, rather than seeking distractions or pushing those experiences away. It means noticing feelings and thoughts as they arise, sensing how they show up in the body, and approaching them with an attitude of acceptance rather than judgment or resistance.

    A helpful way to think about this comes from the “two arrows” metaphor, which is rooted in East Asian Buddhist traditions. It teaches that there are two types of suffering, which can be likened to being struck by two arrows.

    The first arrow is the unavoidable unpleasant experience that comes with being human – for example, feeling exhausted after a poor night’s sleep. The second arrow is how we react to that unpleasantness: tensing up, resisting it, replaying it in our mind, criticizing ourselves or trying to escape it. Often this second arrow adds more suffering than the original unpleasant experience.

    In mindfulness practice, the goal is not to stop having unpleasant sensations and feelings. Instead, mindfulness helps people accept the unavoidable difficulties of that first arrow and to soften the second arrow by letting go of struggle with those experiences and reactions that make them worse.

    For example, let yourself feel bored without immediately reaching for distraction. Acknowledge anxiety, sadness or grief with openness, instead of trying to suppress those feelings or fueling them with harsh self-criticism.

    Practicing mindfulness in everyday life

    One way to cultivate this attitude is to treat thoughts, emotions and sensations as guests in your inner landscape. Instead of fighting them or clinging to them, notice when they arise. Acknowledge and welcome them, and when they naturally change, let them go. Some people find it helpful to imagine holding a difficult feeling as they would a crying baby, with a touch that’s steady, supportive and kind.

    If you want to try this in daily life, the next time you feel a challenging experience, pause and open to the experience for a moment. Notice what you are feeling. Where does it show up in your body – a tightness in the chest or heaviness in the stomach? Can you allow it to be there, even briefly, without trying to fix it or distract yourself from it?

    A driver's hand tightly grips a steering wheel with traffic visible ahead.
    Mindfulness means acknowledging and accepting challenging feelings, such as stress and frustration from unexpected delays. LB Studios/Connect Images via Getty Images

    Then observe what happens. Does the challenging experience change over time in any way? Do your reactions shift or soften with repeated practice? Remember that a brief practice is unlikely to produce instant relief, and expecting quick results can actually make it harder to stay open to your experience as it is.

    Rather, our findings suggest that meaningful change comes through consistent, ongoing practice. Every small step matters. Over time, brief moments of responding to stress or discomfort with mindfulness can reshape how you relate to challenges and provide greater resilience and ease.

    In the study where people chose electric shocks over sitting alone with their thoughts, being with their inner experience felt almost intolerable. Mindfulness offers a different path: not escaping that experience but learning to stay with it. In doing so, what once felt unbearable can become something you can meet with greater emotional balance and well-being.

    This article originally appeared on The Conversation. You can read it here.

  • She was afraid that becoming paralyzed would end her marriage. He refused to leave.
    A man holds his wife's hand.Photo credit: Canva

    “For better or worse, till death do us part” is the traditional ending to wedding vows. After a woman suffered a devastating injury that left her paralyzed from the waist down, those promises were no longer just words.

    In a Reddit post titled “am paralyzed and think my husband should leave me but he doesn’t want to,” a 31-year-old woman shared her challenging situation. Despite being married for five years and raising two children together, her spinal cord injury left her questioning the strength of their marriage.

    family, hope, emotional support, caregiving
    A happy family smiling.
    Photo credit: Canva

    He refuses to leave

    In the thread, she explains that she has a loving, supportive husband. They’ve been together for eight years, and he’s always been amazing. She then explains the current situation:

    “Recently, I suffered a spinal cord injury that has left me paralyzed from the waist down. Doctors say it’s unlikely I’ll walk again. Since this happened, I can’t shake the feeling that my husband should leave me. I know it sounds awful, but I’ve seen so many stories online about partners leaving after someone becomes seriously ill or disabled. It’s made me incredibly insecure.”

    She believes her husband deserves to be more than a simple caretaker:

    “I brought it up with my husband, telling him he deserves better than being a caretaker for the rest of his life. He completely broke down, saying he married me because he loves me and isn’t going anywhere. We cried, he reassured me, and we cuddled for awhile, but the fear is still there.

    She continues to explain her fear that her husband will eventually feel trapped and resentful, turning to Reddit in search of advice that might alleviate those fears.

    disability, hardship, spinal cord injury, devotion
    A woman wheeled around in a wheelchair.
    Photo credit: Canva

    People share compassion and kindness in a difficult situation

    This post has not been independently verified, and there is no guarantee that the details presented are true. However, the story of a woman fearing her marriage might unravel after a life-altering injury clearly struck a deep emotional chord. People wanted to share their own experiences:

    “First. Believe him. If my husband was paralyzed, I’d be honored to take care of him.”

    “Through sickness and health. He loves you and he’s choosing you. Love isn’t defined by your body.”

    “No way I’d leave my wife due to that reason. And I know she wouldn’t leave me.”

    “If he says he loves you and wants to be with you, don’t push him away because you’re paralyzed.”

    “Trust that he knows what he is doing. He loves you and cares for you. Although you are the one paralyzed, he feels helpless for you too, and helping you actually helps him.”

    “How do you get past those fears? Therapy, probably.”

    “My wife suffered for years with different health issues. She was unable to work or do much of anything else. We couldn’t be intimate either. But I never considered leaving her.”

    severe accidents, supportive spouse, marriage tested, unconditional love
    A serious car crash.
    Photo credit: Canva

    When life changes everything in a marriage

    No one is ever truly prepared for a difficult challenge like paralysis. In such circumstances, having a loving partner can be crucial to a person’s emotional well-being. But is it a test some relationships can’t withstand?

    A 2024 study examined how husbands and wives face serious spinal cord injuries. Couples who worked together, navigating stress instead of facing the challenge alone, were more resilient. Emotional and mental growth after the injury also helped them emerge stronger from the experience.

    A 2022 study found that spinal cord injuries require strong support systems. When a partner becomes the sole caregiver, there’s excess stress, pressure, sadness, and worsening of their own physical health. However, support from others, family education, and learning how to handle the challenges help people do much better.

    Success rates for couples facing severe injuries are not determined by the seriousness of the event itself. Instead, the greatest risk to a relationship’s stability is more closely linked to work-related health limitations and financial strain. A 2022 study found a significantly higher divorce rate over time compared to couples without these challenges.

    Statistics from SpinalCord.com show that divorce rates are 1.5 to 2.5 times higher when an injury first occurs. However, after three years, the rate falls back to the national average. The data also highlight the importance of maintaining social connections with family and friends, as isolation can increase stress on a marriage.

    disabled wife, devotion to marriage, loyalty, resilience, parapelgic
    Placing a wedding ring on her finger.
    Photo credit: Canva

    She shares an update on Reddit

    She recently shared an update on Reddit. Here’s some of what she had to say:

    The last few weeks have been good. He’s been a really good support, very loving, and has gone above and beyond. I’m very lucky. I still have my moments when I cry because of my life change, but I’ve gotten used to it now. My husband is genuinely a wonderful guy. I always knew he was, but since then, he’s just proven it even more. — I’ve started working again from home and am happy to be working again. Life is going back to normal and delighted by that.I want to thank everyone on my original post. Who had nice comments thank you.”

    She goes on to share that her husband wants to renew their vows. Her fears and doubts that he might leave her have begun to fade. She has even started writing her own vows for their renewal ceremony.

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