The six states that are most likely to decide who wins the 2020 presidential election are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.
In 2016, Trump's win in Michigan — which many attribute to Hillary Clinton's lack of campaign appearances in the state — was a surprise victory that propelled him to the White House.
Polls show that in a head-to-head match-up, likely Democratic nominee Joe Biden has a steady lead over Trump in the state. Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders also does well in a one-on-one match-up with Trump.
On the eve of the Michigan Democratic primary, Biden got a shot in the arm from an unlikely source, Michael Taylor, the Republican mayor of Michigan's fourth-largest city, Sterling Heights. The mayor told The Chicago Tribune that if Biden becomes the Democratic nominee, he will vote for him instead of Trump.
He cited his children as a major reason for his decision.
"How could I look at those three kids and tell them I'm proud to support Donald Trump? I can't. I won't. I'm voting for @JoeBiden tomorrow and endorsing him for President of the United States. I hope you'll join me," Taylor tweeted Monday.
How could I look at those three kids and tell them I'm proud to support Donald Trump? I can't. I won't. I'm voting for @JoeBiden tomorrow and endorsing him for President of the United States. I hope you'll join me. #Biden2020#MichiganPrimary https://t.co/GIA3PT5DNS
— Michael C. Taylor (@MayorMikeTaylor) March 9, 2020
Taylor is a lifelong Republican who was elected mayor in 2014 and voted for Trump in 2016.
"I remember thinking this Trump thing is insane, but when it was down to him and Hillary, I kind of said, 'Well, you are a Republican, and yeah he's nuts, but maybe he'll get better and you know he's going to lower taxes," Taylor said.
"I slowly talked myself into it. 'He can't seriously be this deranged once he gets in there,' and he's even more deranged now than I thought then," Taylor continued. "So, I take the blame. I voted for him."
Since, Taylor has called the Trump presidency "deranged" and believes that Biden is best suited to build the broad coalition necessary to beat him.
"I think Joe Biden is the candidate who can unify all of the Democrats and he's the candidate who can appeal to moderates and Republicans like me who don't want to see four more years of President Trump," Taylor said, according to the Chicago Tribune.
Sterling Heights is in Macomb County, one of 206 counties that voted for Obama in 2012 but chose Trump in 2016. A large part of the Democrats 2020 strategy is to turn these counties blue again.
Throughout the Democratic primary, voters in 85 of these Obama-Trump counties have cast ballots. Joe Biden has won 41 of these counties, compared to Pete Buttigieg who won 20, and Sanders 18.
It remains to be seen whether Taylor's decision will become a trend with Republican lawmakers in Obama-Trump counties. Some are probably considering ditching the historically unpopular president and backing the Democratic nominee. However, it's definitely more likely to happen if the more moderate Biden gets the nomination over Sanders, a self-described Democratic socialist.
Specifically, Republican analysts believe that suburban women who voted for Trump in 2016 are willing to make the swicth and vote Biden in 2020.
"The women we're talking to — they like Joe Biden," GOP strategist Sarah Chamberlain said according to The Hill. "If it's Biden on the ticket, they may be willing to switch," she added.
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